I have seen a couple of times, without attribution, a claim about an analogy between a certain part of Calvinism with Newcomb's Problem. This post is about that analogy, and before I dive into it, I'd like to make the following two notes:
A) I may well be misinformed about the relevant part of Calvinist doctrine, I don't think that my being misinformed detracts much from the point being made.
B) If someone know's where this analogy has been written on before, please let me know.
In this post, I am going to set up the puzzle, describe the alleged analogy, and then discuss it a bit.
Newcomb's Problem
There is a man, call him Predicto, who is travelling around offering the following deal to people. An individual will be presented with two boxes, A and B. Box A is opaque, and may or may not contain $1,000,000 dollars. Box B is transparent and contains $50,000. Predicto gives that individual (call him the contestant) the choice of either opening box A, or opening both boxes A and B. The contestent gets whatever money is in the box or boxes chosen. Whether or not their is money in box A is determined by Predicto in the following manner: Predicto has superior predictive capabilities. He is an expert at predicting what people will do, and in fact, his track record is flawless. Predicto predicts whether the contestent will open A or A&B. If he predicts that they will open A only, he puts the million in there. If he predicts they will open both, he leaves A empty.
The question is what the contestent ought to do, when they get to open the box. The puzzle is this. At the time the contestant is making a decision, Predicto has already decided and either put money in the box or not. So, when the contestant steps up to the box, one of two states of affairs obtains. Either there is money in box A or not. If there is money in box A, then, you do better by opening both boxes (you get one million plus fifty thousand). If there is no money in box A, you are better off picking both, because you get 50,000 instead of nothing. So, there are two possible states of affairs, and in either one, opening both boxes leads to the better outcome. Rationally, then, when making the decision, there is no advantage gained (and in fact, advantage lost), by opening just box A.
So, it would seem that opening just A is irrational. However, many people feel that a) opening just A is in their interest, and b) that it isn't irrational at all. If you open both, it's likely that Predicto predicted that, and you get only $50,000. If you open just A, on the other hand, you are immensely likely to get a million. A million is better than fifty thousand, and so, it seems, one is better off to choose just one.
I am going to avoid discussing what is to be said for each view, and instead, explain the analogy to Calvanism. I will however, note, that it seems to be the case that one-boxing, as it is sometimes called, leads in terms of widespread popular/intuitive support.
The aspect of Calvinism that is relevant is God's predetermination of salvation. According to Calvinist doctrine, God determines before souls are incarnated which souls will go to heaven. This means that one's behavior on Earth does not impact whether or not they will go to heaven. However, it is thought that behaving certain ways is an indicator of which decision God made, and thus, there is supposed to be some encouragement to be good, so that you are more likely to have been predestined for salvation.
This notion (which may well be innaccurate as a description of Calvinist thought, but which is widely taken to be a description of such), lacks popular/intuitive support. That is to say, people don't seem to think that this should be good motivation to act well, since it has already been decided.
The claim of analogy is that the calvinist set up is structurally similar to the Newcomb problem. Further, it seems odd that people would diverge as to their opinions on the case, since they both involve actions and behaviors at time t2 impacting a decision that was made at t1. One-boxers, in other words, should see some merit to motivating good behavior in that manner.
Disanalogies in the situations exist. Predicto's existence and predictive capacity is taken as known. Money is the prize in one case, eternal salvation in the other. Etc.
Let me argue for what agreeing to the analogy commits us to:
1) If one-boxing in Newcomb's problem is rational, then the rationality of one-boxing is because it is rational to believe that a decision at time t1 can be impacted by an action performed at some later time t2.
2) If the rationality of one-boxing is because it is rational to believe that a decision at time t1 can be impacted by an action performed at some later time t2, then if someone believes one-boxing is rational and finds the "Calvinist" motivation for behaving well irrational, it cannot be because believing that actions performed after the salvation-decision occurred are unable to impact the outcome.*
Now, I think that we should conclude that they are both irrational, absent evidence for this sort of backwards causation, but the analogy and disparity is interesting.
*(Barring an argument that there is something specifically different about the decision events in the two would make the backwards-causation feasible in one, but not in the other).